Parliament v The People

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For the HOC to ‘take back control’ they would need to bring primary legislation – on paper they have the numbers – but this would mean overturning the referendum result. We will soon see if the 20 Remain Tories are willing to do this. It would be explosive if they joined with Labour to do this – and the end of the government. (Carney needs to get back to work…).

If such action is taken, all bets are off. It is exactly because we are a democracy that it won’t be accepted. The second referendum was the election where the majority voted for parties committed to Leaving the EU. The Liberals were hammered and Clegg lost his own seat. While the BBC give lots of time to arch-remainer Carolina Lucas, the Green Party are an irrelevance. The fall out may drag on as it takes time to re/select candidates.

Labour also has a big problem as their voters support Brexit. Senior members represent Leave heavy areas:

Yvette Cooper, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Leave 70.0%
Angela Rayner, Ashton-under-Lyne Leave 63.4%
Lisa Nandy, Wigan Leave 63.0%
John McDonnell, Hayes and Harlington, Leave 58.2%.

6/7 MPs voted to hold the Referendum.
384 majority to invoke Article 50: 498 votes to 114.
52% voting Leave and 48% voting Remain in Referendum.
70% of Conservative constituencies and 60% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave in the EU referendum.
64% Parliamentary seats voted to Leave.
75% of constituencies won by the Conservatives in the 2017 general election voted to Leave.
61% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave.
Minority parties – all seats won by the SNP, Green Party (one seat), and a majority of the seats won by the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, voted to Remain and didn’t back Article 50.

The Tory rebels are way out on a limb for all their talk of being elected to represent the people. They are contradicting both their manifesto (Boles) and often their constituents.

Conservative Manifesto 2017
Rather than pursue an agenda based on a supposed centre ground defined and established by elites in Westminster, we will govern in the interests of the mainstream of the British public. We will get on with the job and take Britain out of the European Union.

As we leave the European Union, we will no longer be members of the single market or customs union but we will seek a deep and special partnership including a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement.

It is the purpose of this Conservative Party, in responding to the historic vote on our membership of the European Union, to re-establish faith in our democracy and in our democratic and legal institutions.

The rebels who supported Yvette Cooper’s Amendment seeking to prevent a No Deal:

For their people…?
Nick Boles, Grantham and Stamford, Leave 61% – member ‘Notting Hill Set’.
George Freeman, Mid Norfolk, Leave 60.6%.
Jonathan Djanogly, Huntingdon, Leave 55.3%.
Sam Gyimah, East Surrey, Leave 54.2%
Dr Sarah Wollaston, Totness, Leave 54.1%.
Michael Fallon, Sevenoaks, Leave vote 54% – Ex-Cabinet.
Gutto Bebb, Aberconwy, Leave 53.3%.
Philip Lee, Bracknell, Leave, 53.2%.
Antoinette Sandbach, Eddisbury, Leave 52.2%
Sir Oliver Letwin, West Dorset, Leave 52% – Ex-Cabinet.
Nicky Morgan, Loughborough Leave 50.3%, Charnwood Council Leave 54% – Ex-Cabinet.
Anna Soubry, Broxtowe, Leave 50.3%.

Dominic Grieve, Beaconsfield, Remain 50.8% – calling for a Second Referendum – Cameron Cabinet.
Bob Neill, Bromley and Chislehurst, Remain 50.2%.
Richard Benyon, Newbury, Remain 52.5%.
Sir Nicolas Soames, Mid Sussex, Remain, 53.4%.
Ed Vaizy, Wantage, Remain 53.6% – member ‘Notting Hill Set’.
Heidi Allen, South Cambridgeshire, Remain 61.6%.
Ken Clarke, Rushcliffe, Remain 58.7%.
Justine Greening, Putney, Remain 73.2% – Ex-Cabinet.

Amber Rudd, Hastings and Rye, Leave 55.9% – suggested Second Referendum. Brother leads campaign for ‘People’s Vote.’
Jeremy Lefroy, Stafford, Leave 57.5%

A People’s Uprising is more Likely than a People’s Vote
I previously assumed Tory Remainers would blink at reversing Brexit but am now less sure. They are the extremists here…The media is very biased – where are the headlines ‘Tory Remain Rebels seek to overturn the will of the people!’? The people are not stupid.

A quiet revolution will begin beyond marches – mass cancelling of BBC licence fee etc. Boycott of a second referendum – why should the result be respected? Let’s hope it stays peaceful but there are no guarantees if the HOC thwarts the result.

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